Did the Program Actually Cause That?

Welcome to another installment of the Challenges of Estimating NTG, where we explore the challenges of assigning a numeric counterfactual value to...

Negative Savings?! That’s Not Supposed to Happen!

Sometimes in the course of evaluating energy efficiency projects, we come across projects with negative savings. In other words, participating in...

Are We Underestimating Cooling Savings in an Era of Climate Change?

As global average temperatures continue to rise due to climate change caused by humans, the amount of energy used (and potentially saved) cooling...

How Long Will the Savings Last? Exploring Persistence and the Rebound Effect

Last month’s post focused on how to best treat future energy or carbon savings and how this decision can affect whether short-term or long-term...

Discount Rates, Carbon, and the Ministry for the Future

I recently read The Ministry for the Future by Kim Stanley Robinson. It’s a science fiction novel about climate change in the near future (a.k.a. ...

Cascading Effects and Market Transformation

Like many, I was transfixed in late March by the huge container ship stuck in the Suez Canal. And also, like many, I enjoyed the many versions of...

Why Evaluators Need Whiteboards: Avoiding Double-Counting in Evaluation

I love explaining things with diagrams. One thing I have really missed working from home over the past year is not being able to illustrate ideas...

Pies, Nice Dinners, and Broken Windows – Attribution, Causality, and NTG

Welcome back to the Challenges of Estimating NTG, where we explore the challenges of assigning a numeric counterfactual value to a complex...

Program Goals and Evaluation

It’s January and after a somewhat eventful 2020, flipping the calendar to a new year seems extra meaningful. Because many people set New Year’s...

Brad Stevens, Sampling Error, and Cost Effectiveness

I am a big fan of the Boston Celtics and their coach, Brad Stevens. How does this relate to sampling error in cost-effectiveness testing? Read on...

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